2023 is going to be a good bastard.
I’m not saying it because I feel it, I believe it, to gain likes or because I like it. Much less am I a pessimist, as indicated by the reports, the official figures and the simple and good observation that allows us to connect a little of everything.
Having reliable information allows you to prepare ahead of time and make data-oriented decisions, which will be important since it is very likely that all the young and not so young in Latin America (excluding Venezuelans) will live in the next 2 or 3 years a true nightmare from an economic perspective.
In 2023 what define as the perfect storm is coming: a critical situation created by a powerful concurrence of different factors since we come from a particularly complicated context: pandemic, quarantines, cuts in the supply chain, bonuses and non-profit aid. planned strikes, war and uncontrolled inflation in almost the entire world,
But why do I think things are going to get worse instead of better?
It’s simple: We failed to reverse any of the negative trends in time and now for the next year we will be in free fall:
- The Covid returns with everything in Asia, but with everything.
The canary in China is Foxconn, the company that owns the factories/cities that produce the iPhones. When these guys stop producing, it’s because the situation is really screwed up. It is estimated that 10% of the world population will be infected again in the next 4 months, we are talking about something around at least 800 million people. Deaths will no longer be as high as before, but we can still expect at least 5 million to die in the short term, most likely we will never know the official figure.
The possibility of the evolution of the virus and the implementation of quarantines will make it very likely that several fundamental countries in world production and supply will have challenges in importing, exporting and that the prices of many products will rise again.
2. International policies.
In the USA, public spending policy and the printing of dollars have not stopped since the pandemic, and a week ago the Senate approved a new law to finance the country’s defense, where they will spend nothing more, nothing less than USD 1,700 .000.000.000.00. And no, I didn’t misspell the number.
It’s 1 trillion dollars!
That means that the US is definitely thinking of escalating the war in Ukraine or preparing for a possible escalation of the conflict between China and Taiwan, which would be even more catastrophic. It should be remembered that the USA is already the country that currently invests the most in defense. No one makes an investment of this magnitude in a context like the current one for nothing.
The aid and inflation that was already out of control, generating strikes in the working class and even making networks like McDonald’s not have enough workers to operate will continue to increase, even with a great supply of work. And whether you like it or not, the world is dollarized for international operations so this is not a US problem, it is a problem for all of us.
Winter has begun in Europe, the war continues and the cost of electricity is skyrocketing. There are businesses going bankrupt because they simply went from paying 300 euros for electricity to paying 1,400 in some countries. The politically correct and the story of renewable energies jumped out the window and they are burning coal as they did almost a century ago, like crazy.
Internationally, it is very likely that many countries will not be able to fulfill their commitments, they will go directly from recession to crisis. And most likely no one will come to their rescue since the great powers will be dedicated to their own problems.
3. What are the people who control global events around the world?
Another point that draws attention in the international context is that billionaires are also worried even when they are the biggest beneficiaries in times of crisis, but I am going to explain why people like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are literally asking people to stop buying and save your money.
The biggest companies in the world need people to do fairly well to buy crap. A paralyzed economy and people who have nothing more than to survive are of no use to them. And so many alerts make me understand that the escalation of poverty can happen in a way never seen in countries like the USA and other powers.
Many of the big corporate stocks are trading at their lowest price in 52 weeks, and they’re still going down. That happens because the greater the uncertainty, the more investors seek uncertainty plus investors seek security and after GoldmanSachs and other investment funds indicated that the stock market will fall in 2023. Good for those who have cash to buy.
4. But as always there will be capitalized in 2023.
Amazon has been in acquisitions and migrations to the health sector for 3 years. Apple the same. Bill Gates and other big-techs focused on agriculture.
Personally I consider that only 6 sectors will not be impacted and will grow in 2023. (If you are interested, I can explain in another text since this is very long)
Health.
Agro.
Basic services.
Real estate.
Luxury.
Banking. (QR / Credit Cards)
On the other hand, there will also be the big losers:
Gig-Economy and delivery guys.
Automotive Industry.
Tourism.
Monthly subscription services of all kinds.
Entertainment industry. ( Film / Music )
Media
5. The summary and what you can do.
In 2023 the money you already have will be worth less, there will be less available money circulating, some things will cost more, others will become scarce, and the normal job offer for most positions will decrease. It may seem very pessimistic to you, but you may also still be drunk from the global fever and the optimistic Christmas and the New Year transition…
The good news is that the world is cyclical. That will not last a lifetime. These movements occur from time to time and are a natural part of economic cycles. Now the goal is to survive these 2 or 3 years knowing that later things will most likely get better again and we will once again experience a new boom.
On the other hand, while your control over the global or local economy is minimal, you have full control over your life. You can take care of your finances, make intelligent use of the financial resources you have at hand using credit as an ally and being aware of your purchases.
You can also turn your career around, not all industries will be in crisis, in fact, many of them will make more money than ever and need a lot of staff. Needless to say, everything digital will be high.
I deeply believe that only crises bring out the best in our creativity, resourcefulness, and effort. The ideal is always not to live them, but we are much stronger and capable than we think.
